Ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) are associated with adverse human health effects such as induction of respiratory symptoms, lung dysfunction, inflammation of airways and even premature death. As the common precursors to ozone and PM2.5, nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) could transport long distances and impact air quality over a large region. In order to control criteria air pollutants to attain National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS), states governments developing implementation plans, which consider individual pollutants at a time, usually require iterative simulations. The objectives of this study are to (1) assess air quality and health impacts associated with long-range transport of air pollutant precursors, (2) quantify uncertainties in air quality modeling results and (3) develop a resources allocation model which allows for identification of multipollutant air quality management strategies that maximize health benefits when limited resources are considered. To achieve the objectives, U.S. EPA photochemical transport model (i.e., CMAQ) was applied to investigate the effects of cross-region transport of air pollutants on regional air quality in the Northeast U.S. Additionally, this work applied a health impact function based on epidemiologic literatures to quantify ozone- and PM2.5–related mortalities in the large metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the northeastern U.S. Furthermore, a mathematical technique was employed to build up a resource allocation model for developing optimal air quality control strategies and achieving the largest health benefits in megacities. An innovative analytical approach, error propagation, was also introduced to investigate uncertainties in air quality modeling outputs attributed to errors in emission estimates. The results of this study showed that emissions of anthropogenic NOx, VOCs and sulfur dioxide from the northeastern U.S. could cause up to about 2,500 ozone- and PM2.5-related deaths in the urban areas examined in this study. Anthropogenic NOx and VOCs emissions from the regions where the MSAs are located had the most significant contributions to ozone-related mortalities in the eastern U.S. urban areas. Furthermore, anthropogenic NOx emissions from non-electric generating unit (EGU) sources were the most important contributors to uncertainties in modeled peak ozone concentrations. The resource allocation model estimated 8,950 mortality incidences could be avoided in August of 2010 if air quality management budgets could be allocated properly. The results of the air quality health study implied that the development of air quality management strategies should be considered on a regional basis. The innovative resource allocation model and the analytical uncertainty approach can be used by decision-makers to develop optimal air quality management strategies and quantify associated uncertainties.
Language
eng
File Type
pdf
File Size
3429985 bytes
Date Available
January 8, 2018
LC Number
AS36.T3 Hou
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